How to Make Sense of the Polls Without Losing Your Mind

Not all political polls are created equal. Here’s 538’s guide to interpreting them.

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.

It's easy to misread polls. Here's a handy guide to what campaign professionals consider with every poll they see

As the election nears, most pollsters are reporting responses from “likely voters.” The challenge is in figuring out who they are.

The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications.

Presidential polls are no more reliable than they were a century ago. So why do they consume our political lives?

A veteran of survey research explains why high-quality polling matters — and warns of the proliferation of shoddy gimmicks

The question is not whether we should trust the polls. It’s whether the onslaught of analysis that invariably follows them actually holds any predictive or explanatory power.

With less than 50 days until Election Day, it’s trite to say that it looks like it’s going to be close. But it actually does look that way.

For most, the big decision is about whether to vote at all.

Once beloved by progressives, Silver now feuds with them regularly. He tells us why.