It is possible that the pattern of 10–15 year computing cycles has ended and mobile is the final era. It is also possible the next era won’t arrive for a while, or that only a subset of the new computing categories discussed above will end up being important.
I tend to think we are on the cusp of not one but multiple new eras. The “peace dividend of the smartphone war” created a Cambrian explosion of new devices, and developments in software, especially AI, will make those devices smart and useful. Many of the futuristic technologies discussed above exist today, and will be broadly accessible in the near future.
What’s Next in Computing?
The computing industry progresses in two mostly independent cycles: financial and product cycles. There has been a lot of handwringing lately about where we are in the financial cycle. Financial markets get a lot of attention. They tend to fluctuate unpredictably and sometimes wildly.