How To Make Lots Of Money During The Next Downturn
Maybe don’t short everything, but otherwise some interesting thoughts
Wild. Local government is what affects our lives the most, yet gets away with absurd levels of corruption because we pay close to no attention
useful if you’ve ever wondered why your designs for iOS look a little off in production
“Recently I gave a talk to a group of design leaders, where I presented a list: (1) User, (2) Business, (3) Team, (4) Self. This list represents, in rank order, how I believe we as designers should prioritize our work”
“When we really dig into growth problems, we often see that enough people are actually coming to the products. The real growth problems start when people land…and leave. They don’t stick. This is an onboarding problem, and it’s often the biggest weakness for startups.”
“Centralized platforms often come bundled at launch with compelling apps: Facebook had its core socializing features and the iPhone had a number of key apps. Decentralized platforms, by contrast, often launch half-baked and without clear use cases. As a result, they need to go through two phases of product-market fit: 1) product-market fit between the platform and the developers/entrepreneurs who will finish the platform and build out the ecosystem, and 2) product-market fit between the platform/ecosystem and end users. This two-stage process is what causes many people — including sophisticated technologists — to consistently underestimate the potential of decentralized platforms.”
“Someday, they will be used by the machines in our network, on our desk, in our garage, and in our pocket to exchange value and achieve consensus at blinding speeds, anonymously, and at minimal cost.”
"Now here’s the issue: We know that things can go too far on the Right and we know that things can go too far on the Left. But we don’t know what the markers are for going too far on the Left. And I would say that it’s ethically incumbent on those who are liberal or Left-leaning to identify the markers of pathological extremism on the Left and to distinguish themselves from the people who hold those pathological viewpoints. And I don’t see that that’s being done. And I think that’s a colossal ethical failure, and it may doom the liberal-Left project."
"If there’s one thing I’ve learned from all this building, it’s that reality has a surprising amount of detail.
This turns out to explain why its so easy for people to end up intellectually stuck. Even when they’re literally the best in the world in their field."
"Once you quit a full-time job, you just need a small positive savings rate to stick around and keep trickling into investments. This will automatically become a cash snowball as you go about your daily retired life. By the time you’re old enough to need it, it will be bigger than you can possibly need."
Android is adding some neat new features to liberate you from your phone. And they are fairly heavy-handed -- I love it
"Ask yourself, “how does this decision I’m making look in the context of all of human conditions in the world right now, and throughout the many thousands of years of human history?” Is there really a big difference between the fancy neighborhood and the normal one now? Between home-brewed espressos or Starbucks? Or even between choosing the 2001 car and the 2013 one?"
this is seriously cool. lightning network having good user experience was far from a given. crypto UX slowly moving forward
“The whole point of money is that it solves the double-coincidence of wants problem that makes barter massively ineffective. Requiring customers purchase your tokens in order to use your services is a huge barrier to mainstream adoption.”
“As tempting as it may be to believe that products can virtually design themselves using a nifty engineering-led, Darwinistic process, such beliefs are misplaced and will not lead to the creation of great products.”
"As you can see, the 4% value is actually somewhat of a worst-case scenario in the 65 year period covered in the study. In many years, retirees could have spent 5% or more of their savings each year, and still ended up with a growing surplus."
"One of their innovations was to plan a lifetime family career — together. Most of us well-meaningly want to support our partner and their careers. But thinking about two careers individually and then trying to marry them together is often a design challenge. Matthew and Kate started with designing a life, and retrofitted to identify careers that might deliver it. They devised a single vision for their couple — and the family they had just started. They thought of it as a team vision, like they might at work. What were their respective strengths, and their respective dreams? How could they use each other to guarantee the success of their broader vision, while minimizing some of the risks they might bump into along their road?"
"Thinking time is non-linear. The time you spend thinking – walking around a problem in a three-dimensional way and exploring all of the various perspectives and mental models – pays you back tenfold in the end. The problem for those who are shortsighted is that this time will appear as a negative for a while because it looks like nothing is getting done."
an interesting—and pessimistic?—prediction: due to the open-source nature of crypto, companies will copy the best tech out there for each problem. as a result, success in the crypto space will not be technological or product superiority, but network size and superior go-to-market strategies.
"Over the next few years, we’re going to see many teams get wiped out by competitors who literally steal all of the inventor’s technology. The hedonic treadmill that is capitalism dictates that this will happen. It’s going to be brutal."
“Almost all of our U.S. dollars, about 90 percent, are purely abstract — they literally do not exist in any tangible form. James Surowiecki reported in 2012 that “only about 10 percent of the U.S. money supply — about $1 trillion of the roughly $10 trillion total — exists in the form of paper cash and coins.” (The number now appears to be about $1.5 trillion out of $13.7 trillion.) There is nothing stopping our banking system from creating more dollars whenever the mood strikes. Of the $13.7 trillion in the M2 money supply as of October 2017, $13.5 trillion was created after 1959—or, to put it another way, M2 has expanded by almost 50 times.”
"But for too many dual career couples, even in an era of supposed equality, two individuals can end up competing for short-term trade-offs rather than cooperating for longer term, mutually beneficial gains. Couples end up negotiating, based on current realities, rather than pacing themselves for the long (and lengthening) haul. This translates into decisions based on who has the higher income, the assignment abroad, or the babies."
"Rarely do we stop to ask ourselves questions about what we consume: Is this important? Is this going to stand the test of time — say, in a week or in a year? Is the person writing this someone who is well informed on the issue?"
I haven't posted one of my own articles here yet, so here goes. I re-read this before every game
fantastic notes on creating a fun and effective onboarding process
“Nothing exposes the of lack clarity on cryptocurrency taxes quite like a “hard fork,” an event in which a blockchain network splits and creates a second currency. A hard fork of Bitcoin last August that created Bitcoin Cash resulted in a windfall for Bitcoin users, if they wanted it—the same amount of Bitcoin Cash as they held in Bitcoin. Was that income? If so, how should they determine its value for tax purposes? The IRS hasn’t offered any guidance.”
a beautiful piece, but absolutely killed me inside.
"Before all hope died I used to have this stupid dream that shit could be saved, that we would be in bed together like the old times, with the fan on, the smoke from our weed drifting above us, and I’d finally try to say words that could have saved us.
But before I can shape the vowels I wake up. My face is wet, and that’s how you know it’s never going to come true.
(1) lack of ambiguity, (2) a good reading rhythm, and (3) a large x-height
interesting discussion on two distinct types of self-awareness: how well you know yourself and how well you recognize what others think of you
"With just the push of a button, the dispenser prints a one-, three-, or five-minute story, completely free of charge."
"Unfortunately we don’t have a lot of independent design critics. This is true for a host of reasons. And whether it’s a cause or an effect, the fact of the matter is that design discourse is dominated by designers, and that is a major defect of our industry."
💯💯💯 the greatest design listicle of all time
“If you sharpen your capacity to think and to communicate as a consequence of writing, you are better armed. The pen is mightier than the sword, as the saying goes. This is no cheap cliché. Ideas change the world, particularly when they are written. The Romans built buildings, and the Romans and the buildings are both gone. The Jews wrote a book, and they are still here, and so is the book. So it turns out that words may well last longer than stone, and have more impact than whole empires.”
"The smartest play for coyotes in the meta-game is never to Skirmish with humans. Never. And if you find yourself in a Skirmish-with-Humans game, then the smart play is to act scared, to run away at top speed from a jangling coffee can. But no, coyotes are too clever by half, plenty smart enough to understand and master the reality of their immediate situation, but nowhere near smart enough to understand or withstand the reality of their larger situation. It’s their nature to play the scheming mini-game. They can’t help themselves. And that’s why the coyotes always lose. It’s always the meta-game that gets you."
“Even if robots aren’t putting people out of work, they may be causing wages to stagnate. The people getting kicked out of manufacturing jobs may have other jobs available to them (and so not end up affecting the PAMLFPR numbers), but those jobs may not be as good or pay as well. This isn’t “technological unemployment”. But it might be technological underemployment”
“I understood why other companies had been reluctant to let me see something like this. Never again would I be able to read a lofty phrase about a social-media company’s shift in policy—“open and connected,” or “encouraging meaningful interactions”—without imagining a group of people sitting around a conference room, eating free snacks and making fallible decisions. Social networks, no matter how big they get or how familiar they seem, are not ineluctable forces but experimental technologies built by human beings.”
“Many different use cases have been proposed for blockchains, relating to financial assets, health records, identity management and supply chains. But when examined in the cold light of day, many of these applications do not need a blockchain at all, and could be implemented perfectly well using a regular relational database.”
“Until the mid-19th century, most of the world was a sprawl of empires, unclaimed land, city-states and principalities, which travellers crossed without checks or passports. As industrialisation made societies more complex, large centralised bureaucracies grew up to manage them. Those governments best able to unify their regions, store records, and coordinate action (especially war) grew more powerful vis-à-vis their neighbours. Imperialistic expansion spread the nation-state model worldwide, and by the middle of the 20th century it was the only game in town. There are now 193 nation-states ruling the world.”
"Disinterest in social welfare did not happen overnight. It has been the background music to American economic prosperity since World War II—especially during Republican administrations. You might argue: “But look, it works; we are arguably the largest economy.” However, who are the richest, most socially conscious, and most productive people in the world? No matter what list you look at, the top five are always social democracies, like Denmark and Sweden, which Americans often derogatorily called welfare states. These societies have a group mindset that puts us before me. They do not consider citizens to be customers."
"One of the problems facing China is that manufacturers continue to engage in a practice I call “quality fade.” This is the deliberate and secret habit of widening profit margins through a reduction in the quality of materials."
"Token economies introduce a strange new set of elements that do not fit the traditional models: instead of creating value by owning something, as in the shareholder equity model, people create value by improving the underlying protocol, either by helping to maintain the ledger (as in Bitcoin mining), or by writing apps atop it, or simply by using the service. The lines between founders, investors and customers are far blurrier than in traditional corporate models; all the incentives are explicitly designed to steer away from winner-take-all outcomes."
"There are countless blockchain explainers in text, audio, and video around the web. Almost all of them are wrong because they start from a false premise. There is no universal definition of a blockchain, and there is widespread disagreement over which qualities are essential in order to call something a blockchain."
“We need to consciously embrace the inconvenient — not always, but more of the time. Nowadays individuality has come to reside in making at least some inconvenient choices. You need not churn your own butter or hunt your own meat, but if you want to be someone, you cannot allow convenience to be the value that transcends all others. Struggle is not always a problem. Sometimes struggle is a solution. It can be the solution to the question of who you are.”
“It is first and foremost an African American love letter, and as such it is consumed with The Void, the psychic and cultural wound caused by the Trans-Atlantic slave trade, the loss of life, culture, language, and history that could never be restored.”
“The lesson of history is clear: the pull towards monopolization is extremely strong in a capitalist economy. No matter how defiant the people, eventually powerful economic interests prevail. If a government does not make attempts to curb wealth hoarding at both the individual and business level, inequality will rise and competition will be restricted.”